Isabell Schierenbeck, a professor at Gothenburg University, suggests that the recent attack by the Islamist group Hamas on Israel could lead to a reshuffling of the Israeli government. She points out that signs of this were already apparent on Saturday evening. Hamas fired thousands of rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israel on Saturday, and also managed to infiltrate Israeli territory. The attack has resulted in many casualties and several areas have reportedly been overrun by forces linked to Hamas. Schierenbeck, a professor of political science, assesses that Israel has not been caught off guard by such an attack since the Yom Kippur War in 1973. She sees it as a ”failure” that Israeli intelligence failed to anticipate the attack despite its massive surveillance of Gaza. ”Incredibly unsuccessful”, she says.
This year, large protests have been ongoing in Israel, criticising changes to the country’s legal system. According to Schierenbeck, several demonstrations – which have been held every Saturday – have now been cancelled as a result of the attack. She assesses that in the short term, the attack may increase cohesion among the Israeli population. ”A possible scenario in the longer term is that attention will turn to the domestic political divisions that have existed in the country, and that these divisions have made it possible for Hamas to mobilise. The divisions have simply undermined Israeli security and made the country weak. If this connection is made clear, it may become much more difficult for the government to continue with the legal reforms it has been pushing,” she says.
On Saturday evening, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from Likud extended an offer to the opposition to form a unity government during the crisis. Opposition leaders Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid were reportedly discussing the proposal, according to several Israeli media outlets. ”If Netanyahu forms a unity government with parts of the opposition, he would get rid of the religious extremists on the right who have been driving the reforms,” says Schierenbeck. ”So the attack can be politically advantageous for Netanyahu. But of course, it could also be that he is held responsible for it. Much now depends on who is blamed.”
